New Delhi, July 2024.
India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is seen growing “conservatively” at 6.5-7 per cent in real terms in FY25, with prospects for continued strong growth on the back of improved balance sheets in the private sector, a likely pickup in rural demand amid predictions of a normal rainfall forecast and a likely increase in merchandise exports with improving growth prospects in advanced economies, the Economic Survey for 2023-24 tabled in Lok Sabha on Monday stated.
While India’s current GDP level is seen close to the pre-pandemic trajectory in Q4 FY24, the Survey said any escalation of geopolitical conflicts in 2024 may lead to “supply dislocations, higher commodity prices, reviving inflationary pressures and stalling monetary policy easing with potential repercussions for capital flows”, which could also influence Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) monetary policy stance.
The GDP growth rate projected by the Survey is lower than 8.2 per cent growth recorded in the financial year 2023-24 and over 7 per cent growth seen in the last three financial years.